FIFA World Cup 2026: Ranking the eight quarterfinalists’ chances of glory

FIFA World Cup 2026: Ranking the eight quarterfinalists’ chances of glory

After 96 matches, the FIFA World Cup 2026 has narrowed to eight nations. The competition has seen the elimination of Brazil, Portugal, and the Netherlands, leaving a final field where six of the remaining teams are ranked in the global top 10. As the quarterfinals begin on Thursday, July 9, the tournament moves toward a final in New York/New Jersey scheduled for July 19.

The Heavyweights: France and Spain

France is widely regarded as the class of the field. The 2018 champions have won all four of their matches, scoring 13 goals — the highest offensive output of the quarterfinalists — while conceding only two. Their path included a 3-0 win over Sweden and a 1-0 victory over Paraguay. Kylian Mbappe remains a primary threat, supported by Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue, and Bradley Barcola. However, some analysts suggest France's midfield is a weakness, with Aurelien Tchouameni often left isolated and limited depth behind him.

Spain arrives in the quarterfinals with a historic defensive record. They are the first team in World Cup history to keep six consecutive clean sheets, a streak dating back to 2022. Having allowed only five shots on target in their first five matches, Spain has won all four games, including a 3-0 victory over Austria and a 1-0 win over Portugal. While Mikel Oyarzabal has scored four goals, Lamine Yamal has been a visible factor in flashes, though he has admitted to being at 80-90% fitness.

The Defending Champions and the Three Lions

Argentina enters as the world's top-ranked team and defending champion, but their path has been volatile. They relied on Lionel Messi, who leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals, to orchestrate dramatic comebacks, including a 3-2 win against Egypt. Despite their fortitude, the Albiceleste have looked suspect at the back and fielded their second-oldest starting XI ever against Egypt.

England, seeded fourth, has shown significant mental toughness, highlighted by a 3-2 victory over Mexico at the Estadio Azteca where they played 58 minutes with 10 men. Under Thomas Tuchel, Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have led the squad. But the Three Lions face concerns regarding roster construction and fitness, particularly at right-back and in midfield with Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson dealing with nagging injuries.

The Dark Horses: Norway, Morocco, and Belgium

Norway is the tournament's clearest outlier, having entered ranked 31st. In their first World Cup appearance in 28 years, the Vikings have been ruthlessly efficient, eliminating Ivory Coast and stunning Brazil. Erling Haaland has scored seven goals from 18 shots, while Martin Odegaard has provided three assists. Despite their attacking prowess, Norway has managed only one clean sheet in their last 12 matches.

Morocco aims to build on their 2022 semifinal run. After a 1-0 win over Scotland and a 3-0 victory over Canada, the Atlas Lions are preparing to face France. The squad features superstar Achraf Hakimi and rising midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi. Bouaddi notably captained the French under-21 side in a European Championship qualifier 101 days before this tournament before switching his allegiance.

Belgium has seen a late surge in form. After an inconsistent group stage, they defeated Senegal and dominated the United States. Coach Rudi Garcia has experimented with the lineup, leaving Kevin De Bruyne on the sidelines for the first time in 38 Belgium games to favor a formula inspired by Leandro Trossard, Romelu Lukaku, and Jeremy Doku.

The Underdog: Switzerland

Switzerland has reached its first quarterfinal since 1954. They topped their group, which included Canada, Bosnia, and Qatar, and eliminated Algeria before defeating Colombia in a 4-3 penalty shootout. While they possess tactical discipline and a strong presence in Granit Xhaka, their hopes are dampened by a knee injury to breakout star Johan Manzambi sustained in training.

Quarterfinal Matchups and Outlook

The remaining path to the trophy involves four contrasting matchups:

• France vs. Morocco: A rematch of the 2022 last-four meeting.
• Spain vs. Belgium: A test of Spain's historic defense against a resurgent Belgian attack.
• England vs. Norway: A battle between England's experience and Haaland's scoring form.
• Argentina vs. Switzerland: The defending champions face a disciplined Swiss side.

Following the quarterfinals, the semifinals will determine who competes in the final on July 19. FIFA's next official world ranking update is scheduled for July 20.