Pakatan hoping for higher voter turnout in Johor polls

Pakatan hoping for higher voter turnout in Johor polls

Pakatan Harapan (PH) is intensifying efforts to increase voter turnout for the upcoming Johor state election on July 11, seeking to surpass the record low of 54.92% seen in March 2022. The coalition is deploying a mix of ground and online campaigns to mobilize voters, particularly those working outstation in Singapore.

Anthony Loke Siew Fook, DAP secretary-general and Transport Minister, acknowledged at a ceramah on July 5 that some voters feel fatigue and disappointment. However, Loke argued that abstaining is the worst possible scenario because someone else will make the choice for us.

The Battle for 56 Seats

All 56 seats in Johor will be contested by the three major coalitions: Barisan Nasional (BN), PH, and Perikatan Nasional (PN). PH is fielding candidates for all seats, with 20 for PKR, 19 for Amanah, and 17 for DAP. DAP is increasing its presence from 14 seats in the previous polls to 17, aiming to defend its 10 previous wins while contesting four losses and three new seats.

BN, the current state government, intends to win over 40 seats. The coalition currently holds 40, while PH holds 12, PN holds three, and the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) holds one. While BN and PH are partners in the federal unity government under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, they remain rivals at the state level in Johor.

The contest may feature four-cornered fights following the relaunch of Parti Bersama Malaysia, led by former federal ministers Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad.

Turnout as a Decisive Factor

Analysts suggest that voter turnout will likely determine the winner. Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) noted that BN's 2022 victory occurred during pandemic-related border closures. He suggested that if turnout exceeds 75% or reaches 80%, PH could potentially control the state, whereas BN is more likely to win if turnout remains below 60%.

Other experts provide different projections. Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub of Universiti Malaya expects turnout to increase but remain below 65%. Meanwhile, Assoc Prof Dr Md Akbal Abdullah of Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia believes a turnout of at least 60% is expected, aided by the weekend polling date.

A Vodus Research forecast based on 1,303 registered voters surveyed between June 15 and June 29, 2026, suggests BN holds a lead with 36% of likely voters, compared to PH at 26% and PN at 15%. The forecast projects BN leading in 20 seats, though 14 seats remain closely contested between BN and PH and 17 are unresolved.

Strategic Tensions and Campaign Issues

Campaigning has been marked by friction between coalition partners. Johor Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi stated he would rather not be chief minister than sit at the same table with DAP. This drew a response from Anthony Loke, who called the remarks arrogant, and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who stated it is arrogant to deny any party a role in government after they win democratic support.

On the ground, the campaigns are focusing on divergent themes:

• Economics: Cost of living is the dominant concern, cited by 53% of respondents in the Vodus survey as a top-three issue. PH's Liew Chin Tong has emphasized high-quality jobs and the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone to prevent youth from working abroad.
• Governance: BN's ambition to govern the state independently is expected to spur interest among supporters of all major parties.
• Infrastructure: Issues such as public transport, flooding, and drainage are being prioritized by PH.

PH is also navigating opposition strategies, as PAS has instructed its supporters to vote for BN in seats where PAS is not contesting. Amanah president Mohamad Sabu stated the PH machinery is not intimidated by this directive.

Regional Context: Negeri Sembilan

Concurrent with the Johor polls, Negeri Sembilan will hold elections on August 1, following the dissolution of its assembly on June 5. That race is heavily influenced by a crisis involving the state's royal institution and the election of the ruler by four territorial chiefs (Undangs). In Negeri Sembilan, the main battle is also between BN and PH, who jointly run the state.

Early voting in Johor is scheduled for July 7, leading up to the general polling on July 11.