Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo cut 2026 shipment targets by up to 30%

Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo Cut 2026 Shipment Targets by Up to 30% Amid Memory Crunch

Chinese smartphone makers Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have slashed their 2026 shipment targets by as much as 30% due to rising component costs and severe shortages, according to a report by Nikkei Asia. This move marks the second round of downward revisions this year for the trio, following earlier cuts reported in January. The reductions are mainly affecting mid- to low-end models and overseas markets. Xiaomi, the world's third-largest smartphone brand, had initially targeted 135 million units for 2026, down from 170 million last year. However, the company has now cut its forecast to approximately 95 million units, citing severe component shortages and surging prices that have disrupted its product roadmap. Oppo and Vivo have similarly revised their targets down to below 90 million units each. Honor, which shipped a record 71 million units last year, has told suppliers it may not be able to sustain that growth momentum this year. The core problem is that smartphone makers are now competing directly with AI infrastructure companies for the same components. The low-power DRAM chips, traditionally used mainly in mobile devices, are increasingly being diverted to AI servers. As a result, smartphone makers are being pushed further back in line for production capacity. The squeeze extends well beyond memory chips, with printed circuit boards, CPUs, glass cloth, advanced chipmaking services, and packaging capacity all facing price increases or supply constraints. This is hitting budget and mid-range brands hardest, since price-sensitive customers leave little room to pass rising costs on directly. As one component supplier executive put it, "Reducing production targets is their best choice, otherwise they lose money on every unit sold." Counterpoint Research now projects a 14% decline in the global smartphone market for 2026, with IDC forecasting a similar drop overall and as much as 21% specifically among Android brands. Samsung is seen as comparatively better positioned, given its focus on higher-end devices and stronger access to memory supply. Gartner senior director analyst Ranjit Atwal has warned that the memory crunch will reduce global smartphone shipments by 8.4% in 2026 and push average smartphone prices 13% higher versus 2025 levels. The situation is expected to persist, with Atwal predicting that prices will remain high until the end of 2027. In the midst of this crisis, Micron Technology Inc has emerged as a beneficiary, reporting record Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion and EPS of $25.11, both well above forecasts. The company's shares have risen more than 820% over the past year. As the situation continues to unfold, investors will be watching closely for signs of improvement in the supply chain. Micron's Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings, tentatively scheduled for September 29, will be a key indicator of the memory pricing trajectory and supply allocation into year-end. If the company's guidance signals continued tightness well into 2027, Chinese smartphone brands may face further downward revisions before the year is out. Whether Xiaomi issues a formal update to its revenue guidance in response to the revised volume target is a key question for investors, and one that has yet to be answered publicly.