The next pandemic is not a matter of if, but when,' Oxford professor says

'The next pandemic is not a matter of if, but when,' Oxford professor says

Global health experts and scientists are warning that the world remains dangerously exposed to future infectious disease outbreaks, asserting that another major pandemic is an impending certainty. While the scientific community has made leaps in vaccine technology, officials caution that political complacency, funding gaps, and fragmented international cooperation may leave nations unable to respond effectively to the next threat.

Adrian Hill, a professor at Oxford University and co-founder of the Jenner Institute, argues that epidemics occur frequently and that a serious one typically emerges roughly once every decade. Speaking to Euronews, Hill noted that while the world is better prepared than it was prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, significant challenges remain.

Technological Gains and 'Disease X'

The legacy of the coronavirus pandemic, according to Hill, is the proof that vaccines can be developed within a single year—a timeframe previously considered unthinkable by leading experts. This agility is supported by messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, described as a plug-and-play platform that allows scientists to create vaccines quickly once a virus's genetic sequence is known.

In the UK, the Moderna Innovation and Technology Centre in Harwell became fully operational last year and can produce up to 250 million doses annually.

However, scientists are looking beyond known viruses. Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert of the University of Oxford is researching Disease X, a term coined by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2018 to describe an unknown pathogen that could spark a future pandemic. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director general, warned at the World Government Summit in Dubai that the world remains unprepared for such a threat, which experts believe could kill 20 times as many people as Covid-19.

The Readiness Gap

Despite technological progress, experts disagree on whether the world is actually in a better position. Professor Sir Jonathan Van-Tam, former deputy chief medical officer for England, suggests it is impossible to say that we are in a better place. While mRNA capacity has increased, he notes that the UK government sold the state-backed Vaccine Manufacturing and Innovation Centre to a private firm in 2022.

Sir Jonathan also highlighted the risks of relying on global supply chains, noting that many vaccines are made in North America or Europe and are subject to tariffs and movement difficulties. He argues that vaccine manufacturing should be treated as critical infrastructure, similar to food and energy security.

Other vulnerabilities include:

• Public Sentiment: Sir Peter Horby of Oxford’s Pandemic Sciences Institute expressed doubts that lockdowns could be implemented again due to public skepticism and the memory of those adversely affected.
• Social Factors: Researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health pointed to the enduring social and economic hierarchies that left minority populations disproportionately affected by Covid-19.

Emerging Threats and Global Inequity

Current outbreaks are already signaling new risks. Other pressing threats include the spread of dengue and locally acquired malaria in U.S. States such as Florida, Texas, and Maryland.

Sarah Fortune of Harvard Chan School added that while the world fears the "next" pandemic, diseases like tuberculosis currently kill roughly 1.5 million people annually, often remaining ignored because the victims are among the world's poorest.