Chan Chun Sing says nations must communicate intentions to build trust

Chan Chun Sing says nations must communicate intentions to build trust

Singapore's Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing has warned that building military capabilities without clear communication of intent breeds suspicion and instability between nations. Speaking during and after the 23rd Shangri-La Dialogue, which took place from May 29 to 31, 2026, Chan argued that the combination of action and communication is the only way to dispel doubts and build trust in a fragmenting world.

The minister noted that the current global state is one where nations are not at war, but neither are we at peace in the conventional sense. In this environment, he stated that the more powerful a nation becomes, the more effort it must expend to reassure others of its intentions. According to Chan, if a country possesses capabilities but does not talk to others, it creates suspicion; consequently, actions taken by one party to feel more secure may make another party feel less secure, triggering further reactionary measures.

The Non-Linear Link Between Spending and Capability

Defence spending was a recurring theme of the summit. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth delivered a speech on May 30 urging Indo-Pacific partners to raise their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, having previously called for 3.5 per cent. In response to questions about whether such hikes would divide ASEAN, Chan asserted that there is no linear correlation between expenditure and actual capability.

Chan observed that some countries spend heavily but fail to achieve commensurate capabilities because they adopt a feast-or-famine strategy, spending only when trouble starts. He argued that real capabilities, particularly in human capital, require consistent and stable funding over many years.

• Human Capital: Training pilots and sailors takes years; building a scientific and technological community takes even longer.
• Innovation: The focus should be on how innovative ideas are and achieving bang for the buck rather than the total sum spent.
• Singapore's Position: Singapore's spending has hovered around 3 per cent of GDP, though Chan noted the Singapore Armed Forces has the political and public support to spend up to 6 per cent if required.

New Frameworks for Underwater Security

A concrete outcome of the dialogue was the launch of the Guiding Principles for Underwater Infrastructure Defence Exchanges (GUIDE) on May 30. Signed by Singapore and 16 other countries, this voluntary, non-legally and non-financially binding agreement facilitates information sharing to provide early warnings for security incidents involving critical underwater infrastructure.

Chan described energy and telecommunications cables as critical arteries and warned that if these systems were disrupted, Singapore could be digitally cut off from the world, with serious implications for lives and livelihoods. The framework, which grew from discussions at the 2025 dialogue, is intended to act as a protective mechanism and deterrent against bad actors.

Navigating Great Power Rivalry

Addressing the rivalry between the US and China, Chan reaffirmed a pro-ASEAN stance, stating, We are not pro-US or anti-US, pro-China or anti-China. We are pro-ASEAN. He urged ASEAN member states to remember they are not in competition with one another and should instead focus on coordinating efforts to contribute positively to the world.

When asked if the absence of Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun for the second consecutive year diminished the value of the summit, Chan replied that Beijing has its own considerations regarding delegation profiles. He noted that the 2026 delegation, headed by Major-General Meng Xiangqing, made its presence felt in many plenary sessions and that Singapore treats all levels of representation with respect.

The Evolution of Conflict

Chan highlighted that modern conflict is shifting beyond geography and military firepower to include the Regulation Paradox. This is the dilemma where governments must decide when to implement guardrails for new technologies: regulating too early may stifle innovation, while regulating too late allows flawed norms to become entrenched.

He categorized current security challenges into three groups:

1. Enduring: Geography, manpower, and constrained resources.
2. Emergent: The erosion of the multilateral rules-based order and a return to a might makes right world.
3. Evolving: Technological disruptions, such as AI-integrated drones, and hostile actions that occur along the spectrum between peace and war, such as cyber attacks.

To address these, Chan outlined a four-pronged approach: Capabilities, Commitment, Contributions, and Connections. This includes a high-low mix of capabilities, pairing high-end conventional systems with cheap, dual-use commercial systems like drones.

Moving forward, the Singapore Navy is on track to launch its second Victory-class Multi-Role Combat Vessel in the third quarter of 2026.