Disney’s ‘Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu’ is on track for a $91M–$94M four-day Memorial Day opening, its strongest theatrical debut since 2018’s ‘Solo,’ while ‘Obsession’ surges 16% in its second weekend, proving horror’s staying power in a crowded market. The film’s modest but steady box office—paired with a rare A- CinemaScore and a 71% audience recommendation—signals a franchise cautiously rebounding after years of streaming dominance, as Disney tests whether Star Wars can still command premium ticket prices in an era of franchise fatigue.
Why ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ Is a Box Office Anomaly
‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ isn’t just another Star Wars movie—it’s a test case. Seven years after the last theatrical release, Disney’s Lucasfilm is gauging whether audiences will still pay $15–$20 per ticket for a franchise that has spent the past three years thriving on Disney+ with shows like ‘The Mandalorian,’ ‘Andor,’ and ‘Ahsoka.’ The numbers so far are mixed but not disastrous: a $33M Friday haul (the lowest in franchise history for previews) and a projected $91M–$94M four-day total, per Deadline, puts it on par with 2018’s ‘Solo’—a film critics and fans alike dismissed as a misfire. Yet this time, the calculus is different.
For one, ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ has a $165 million budget—far leaner than the $250M+ blockbusters of the 2010s—meaning even a $90M opening would be profitable, unlike ‘Solo,’ which lost money. More critically, the film’s 71% audience recommendation (up from 70% last week) and an A- CinemaScore suggest it’s not flopping in theaters. The challenge? Convincing casual moviegoers to care. As one talent rep told Deadline, “Who the hell doesn’t want a $90M-plus opening at Memorial Day?” The answer, apparently, is enough people that Disney is treating this as a stress test for future theatrical Star Wars releases.
Director Jon Favreau—who co-created ‘The Mandalorian’ with Dave Filoni—has framed the film as a gateway drug for both hardcore fans and newcomers. “I was able to watch it without feeling completely lost,” wrote Fox News’s reviewer, echoing a sentiment shared by many: Grogu (Baby Yoda) is the star, and the plot—a bounty hunter rescuing Jabba’s son from a warlord gang—is serviceable but forgettable. The film’s 52% Caucasian, 24% Latino/Hispanic audience demographic (per Deadline) reflects a franchise still struggling to diversify its fanbase beyond its core white-male stronghold.
Horror’s Unexpected Winner: ‘Obsession’ Outperforms ‘Michael’
While ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ dominates headlines, the real box office surprise is ‘Obsession,’ Focus Features’ horror film starring Inde Navarrette and Michael Johnston. The movie—critics are calling it “an innocent wish [that] turns into a nightmare”—has jumped 16% in its second weekend, per Variety, a rare feat for any film, let alone a horror release. Its $19.9M second-weekend haul (projected to hit $24.8M over the four-day frame) has it on track to surpass ‘Longlegs’ ($74.3M domestic) and close the gap on ‘Nosferatu’ ($95.6M), Focus Features’ highest-grossing horror ever.
What’s striking is how ‘Obsession’ is outperforming Lionsgate’s ‘Michael,’ the Michael Jackson biopic that’s already a $300M+ global phenomenon. ‘Michael’ added $5.1M Friday and is projected to hit $23.6M over the holiday weekend, but its 18% drop from last week’s $28.8M suggests even biopics can’t sustain momentum without a cultural moment. ‘Obsession,’ meanwhile, has 74% audience recommendation (up from 70%) and a $55.1M domestic total—proof that horror, when executed well, can still surprise in a market dominated by franchises and IP.
The contrast between the two films reveals a broader trend: horror is the new indie darling. While ‘Michael’ relies on nostalgia and a star-powered cast (Bryan Cranston, John Travolta), ‘Obsession’ thrives on word-of-mouth and critical buzz. Its director, Curry Barker, has positioned it as a modern folk horror—a subgenre that’s seen resurgences with films like ‘The Witch’ and ‘Midsommar.’ The fact that it’s outperforming a biopic about the King of Pop in its second act is a bellwether for how audiences are shifting away from legacy IP toward fresh, atmospheric storytelling.
The Star Wars Paradox: Why This Film Matters More Than the Numbers
Disney’s decision to release ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ theatrically is less about box office and more about message. After ‘The Rise of Skywalker’ (2019) tanked critically and financially, Lucasfilm pivoted to streaming, betting that shows like ‘The Mandalorian’ could replace theatrical releases. But the backlash has been palpable: fans feel cheated by a lack of cinematic spectacle, and studios are now scrambling to reintroduce Star Wars to theaters without alienating the core fanbase.
The film’s $12M Thursday preview sales (the lowest in franchise history, per CNBC) underscore the problem: Star Wars fatigue is real. Even with a 68% Disney+ subscriber turnout (vs. 62% for Netflix subscribers), the film is struggling to convert casual viewers. The question now is whether this is a one-off or the new normal.
What makes this moment pivotal is the merchandise angle. As one industry insider told Deadline, “Sometimes these movies make more in merchandise than the actual movie.” Star Wars is already the #5 toy seller annually, with Grogu alone generating $13 million in toys in its first two years. If ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ underperforms, Disney may accelerate its shift to event films—think ‘The Force Awakens’ or ‘Rogue One’—rather than relying on serialized storytelling.
What’s Next: The Future of Star Wars and Horror’s Rise
The Memorial Day box office tells two stories: Star Wars is still a brand, but it’s no longer a guarantee. ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ may not be a blockbuster, but its $91M–$94M opening is acceptable in a post-pandemic market where even ‘Furiosa’ (a $100M+ opening) is considered a modest success. The real takeaway? Disney is testing the waters before committing to another theatrical Star Wars film. ‘Starfighter’ (2027), starring Ryan Gosling, is already in development—but if this film underwhelms, expect more streaming-first releases.
Meanwhile, ‘Obsession’ proves that horror isn’t dead—it’s just waiting for the right story. With ‘Passenger’ (a hitch-hiking horror from Paramount) and ‘I Love Boosters’ (a surreal comedy from Neon) flopping, the genre’s resilience lies in its ability to evolve. If ‘Obsession’ hits $60M domestically, it could redefine how studios market horror in 2026—less as a genre and more as a mood.
The bigger question? Will ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ change how Disney handles Star Wars? The answer may lie in the $209M total for all Memorial Day releases—a 37% drop from last year’s $330.1M. If audiences are tiring of even the biggest franchises, Disney’s next move could be radical: either double down on theatrical spectacle (like ‘The Force Awakens’) or embrace streaming as the primary platform. For now, ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ is a footnote in a larger conversation about how Hollywood sells nostalgia in an age of algorithmic discovery.
What’s clear is this: The era of $1 billion Star Wars films may be over. But the era of Star Wars as a cultural reset? That’s still up for grabs.
