Riga — Latvia’s governing coalition faces its most serious test of the year after a string of aborted votes in the Saeima and a break with coalition discipline over the Council of Europe’s Istanbul Convention. In late September, lawmakers voted 55–33 to send an opposition-backed proposal to withdraw from the treaty to the Foreign Affairs Committee, with several members of the ruling Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) joining the opposition. Prime Minister Evika Siliņa of New Unity said the defection violated the coalition agreement and demanded an explanation, according to Latvian Public Media. The showdown now hangs over autumn budget talks that will determine whether her government can still marshal votes in a fragmented parliament.
Coalition fractures move from theory to the Saeima floor
The Istanbul Convention vote on September 25 was the clearest sign yet of fraying cohesion in Siliņa’s three-party coalition, which also includes the center-left Progressives. The referral succeeded only because ZZS deputies sided with opposition groups — Latvia First, the United List and the National Alliance — to advance the withdrawal motion. Latvia ratified the Istanbul Convention on November 30, 2023, and it took effect May 1, 2024; any reversal would require multiple further votes and legal steps, but the committee referral has shifted the political calculus. Lawmakers have since debated an alternative declaration on combating violence against women, underscoring deep divisions over the convention’s scope and language. (Source: Latvian Public Media.)
The stakes are not merely procedural. Women’s rights groups have staged high-visibility protests outside the Saeima, warning that backtracking would undermine victim protections. The Associated Press reported on October 8 that activists — some with mouths taped — urged lawmakers to keep the treaty in place as the parliament considers withdrawal. Those demonstrations signal that domestic and international scrutiny will follow any attempt to unpick the 2023 ratification. See AP coverage of the protests for context.
Quorum tactics expose a fragile majority
Parliamentary arithmetic has become a weapon. Under the Saeima’s rules, at least 50 of 100 members must participate for a vote to count. Opposition factions have repeatedly withheld participation, forcing the Speaker to close sittings — a tactic used earlier this year to stall a climate bill and again this autumn on EU-related pollution legislation. Latvian Public Media has documented the maneuver, noting that Speaker Daiga Mieriņa (ZZS) closed sessions when participation slipped below the 50‑member quorum. In practical terms, it means the coalition cannot pass even routine business without at least some cooperation from opponents or perfect attendance from its own ranks.
President Edgars Rinkēvičs has moved from urging calm to issuing a pointed warning. After meeting the prime minister on October 8, he said that if the government cannot function, it should “step down to make room for somebody else,” while pressing all sides to prioritize security, demographics, health care and education. His remarks, carried by regional outlets citing the LETA news agency, were calibrated to put pressure on both the cabinet and the Saeima before the budget is tabled.
Budget season: where the confrontation becomes consequential
Latvia’s 2025 budget passed in December 2024 with revenue of €18.4 billion, expenditure of €19.7 billion and a deficit of 2.9% of GDP. But the next round will be harder. Ministries were instructed this summer to identify savings of roughly €150 million for 2026, with cumulative reductions of up to €450 million through 2028, according to the Finance Ministry’s submissions described by Latvian Public Media. Business organizations — the Foreign Investors’ Council in Latvia, the Employers’ Confederation, the Finance Latvia Association and the Chamber of Commerce — went further, signing a January 23 declaration urging at least €850 million in annual public sector cuts. That target was set by social partners, not by the opposition as a formal pledge, and has since shadowed the budget debate.
Those consolidation talks are unfolding as defense bills surge. Latvia has committed to lift military outlays above 3% of GDP and, in February, signaled a path toward 4% next year and 5% thereafter to fund air and coastal defense, ammunition production and drones, the government said. The International Monetary Fund noted in June that higher defense and investment spending are pushing the headline deficit toward 3% of GDP in 2025 and urged Latvia to preserve fiscal buffers with steady consolidation later in the decade. Reuters has separately chronicled the security backdrop, including the Saeima’s April vote to exit the anti-personnel landmines treaty and plans for a new Rheinmetall ammunition plant — decisions that underline how security priorities are reshaping public finances.
Why this matters: the same opposition leverage visible in quorum fights could now reshape core budget choices — taxes, spending and Latvia’s long-term debt path — at a moment when defense needs are rising and social services remain under strain.
What the numbers and rules tell us
Latvia’s 14th Saeima is a 100‑seat chamber in which the government’s working majority has narrowed over the past year. Even when the cabinet survives politically — Siliņa beat a no‑confidence motion on June 5 by 51–28 — gaps appear when coalition partners peel away on culture-war or green policy votes. Because the quorum rule counts participation rather than mere presence, a few abstentions can sink a vote. In January, for example, only 49 members took part on a climate bill, prompting the Speaker to close the sitting. As a result, the coalition must either discipline its own members, cut deals with the opposition, or watch high-priority bills slip into procedural limbo.
The Istanbul Convention episode adds a second complication: coalition reliability. ZZS’s decision to side with the opposition on the referral to committee was a political signal that it can and will withhold votes on values-laden issues. The prime minister’s pushback frames the question confronting deputies this month: whether to trade concessions in the budget — on savings or priorities — in exchange for support on the convention and other contested items, or to risk further stalemate.
Next steps and scenarios
The Foreign Affairs Committee will examine the withdrawal draft and any competing declarations, a process that could stretch for weeks. Cabinet will meanwhile finalize its budget package and seek a path through the Saeima’s two readings for fiscal bills. If opposition parties continue to break quorum or ZZS again defects on key votes, the government could be forced to rewrite the budget to secure passage — or face a fresh censure motion. President Rinkēvičs has made clear that he expects a functioning majority to deliver a budget that protects security and social priorities while stabilizing debt.
Latvia’s politics often hinge on small numbers and strict procedures. This autumn’s combination — razor-thin attendance, culture‑war flashpoints and a hard math of spending cuts — means the government’s survival will likely be decided not in announcements, but in who shows up and presses the voting button on budget night.
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For primary sources and further reporting, see Latvian Public Media’s account of the Istanbul Convention vote, the Associated Press on protests in Riga, Reuters on Latvia’s landmines treaty exit and defense industry plans, and the IMF’s Article IV statement on fiscal pressures.
