Trump to Decide Today: Iran Deal on Strait of Hormuz, Uranium Destruction in Limbo

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Conflicting Claims Over the Iran Deal Framework

The path toward a diplomatic resolution remains obscured by a chaotic exchange of statements between Washington and Tehran. While the White House confirmed to various outlets that a 60-day memorandum of understanding had been reached to extend a ceasefire and initiate nuclear talks, the administration’s own messaging has been inconsistent. Vice President J.D. Vance stated that while there has been “a lot of progress” in the negotiations, it remains unclear “when or if” President Trump would sign off on the deal. According to PBS, Vance tempered expectations by noting that the situation requires further progress before a guarantee of success can be made. This internal tension contrasts with the public confidence previously signaled by other administration officials. Meanwhile, Iranian state news agency Fars explicitly denied that any agreement has been finalized, characterizing the negotiations as being “in the final stages of ratification in Iran and has not yet been decided.”

Trump’s Demands and the Dispute Over Terms

President Trump utilized a Truth Social post on Friday to outline a series of rigid conditions for any potential deal, including the immediate, toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. CNBC reported that the president also indicated the U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman would be lifted, though he did not clarify if this was contingent upon Iran meeting all prior conditions. Iranian officials have pushed back against these requirements, framing them as a distortion of the actual discussions. Fars reported that the text of the agreement contains no clauses regarding the removal of tolls in the Strait of Hormuz or the dismantling of nuclear materials. Instead, Iranian sources claim the negotiations center on different priorities:

• The immediate release of $12 billion in frozen assets.
• The establishment of a complete ceasefire in Lebanon.
• Arrangements for maritime security and ship monitoring in the Strait of Hormuz, rather than an unconditional opening.

Iran has insisted that after the lifting of the [U.S.] blockade, it will open the strait based on its predetermined arrangements. These arrangements can range from monitoring and inspecting ships to providing services and providing security.

For more on this story, see Iran U.S. Close to Ceasefire Deal.

Fars news agency, via CBS News

The Financial and Nuclear Stakes

Central to the friction is the status of Iran’s nuclear material and the transfer of funds. While President Trump asserted that enriched material will be unearthed and destroyed in coordination with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iranian officials maintain that such claims are fundamentally unfounded. The financial aspect of the deal is equally contentious; while a draft agreement allegedly includes the release of $12 billion in frozen assets, the president has insisted that “no money will be exchanged, until further notice.” The negotiating framework, as described by officials to the media, appears to be a two-phase process. The first phase aims to secure a ceasefire and reopen shipping lanes, while the second phase would focus on long-term nuclear constraints. U.S. negotiators are reportedly pushing for a 20-year freeze on uranium enrichment, while Iran has countered with an offer of five to 10 years. A senior administration official summarized the U.S. position earlier this week as “no dust, no dollars,” implying that the release of frozen funds is strictly tied to the export or destruction of Iran’s 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium.

Military Tensions and Uncertain Future

The diplomatic posturing occurs against a backdrop of active military engagement. The U.S. and Iran have continued to trade fire, and Iran recently launched a ballistic missile at Kuwait, complicating the viability of the proposed ceasefire. With the president currently in the Situation Room to make a “final determination,” the immediate future of the deal hinges on whether these conflicting public narratives can be reconciled behind closed doors. Market reaction has already been sensitive to these signals, with oil prices falling following the president’s announcement on Friday. As the 60-day window for the potential memorandum of understanding begins to take shape, the primary question remains whether the U.S. and Iran can bridge the gap between their public demands and the private realities of their draft agreements.